by Adrian C. Ott

I attended an IDC presentation recently on Social Media.  One of the analysts shared a provocative idea about
"Social Network-itis." The concept is that some users, particularly Gen Yers, are tiring of being involved in so many
on-line social networks.

I applied our Share of Customer Time (TM) methodology to "Social Network-itis" and it does holds true.  As I reflect
 on my own personal activity, I am involved with a number of communities, forums and blogs both on-line and off-line. 
I highly value these associations.

However, just as "trees don't grow to the sky,"  the appeal of new social networks will eventually have diminishing appeal. 
There simply is not enough time in the day to participate in them all.  Adding a new community must be justified against
either quitting old ones-- or trading off time with other activities.  It has to add significant value to one's day to be considered.


Corporate Community Building will Lead to Over Saturation

Corporations are currently in a gold rush to build their own communities and blogs.    Although progress toward a
two-way dialog is sorely needed, too many companies are rushing into this without a strategic vision.  To paraphrase
 a famous baseball movie, the attitude is, "If we build it, they will come."

By 2010 we predict that many corporate blogs and communities will be shut down because of:

 1) over saturation  
 2) a lack of consistent value that drives viable user communities.

Let's do a quick math calculation.  Consider a Global 1000 corporation.  If it has:

• One corporate-wide blog
• An average of twenty officers and key thought leaders who write their own blog
• Each business unit has their own community groups to test, support and communicate with customers                                   (let's conservatively say there are ten). 

This means that just one large corporation will have a minimum of 31 community groups and blogs. (This doesn't
include country specific groups or websites.)

Multiply an average of 31 communities by the Global 1000 and that would mean 31,000 corporate community
groups and blogs vying for our attention!

Indeed, not all social media vehicles provided by corporations will appeal to everyone.  Some will be targeted at
consumers some will be targeted at businesses.  Despite this, if we add community associations, Facebook ,
Linked-In, on-line periodicals and SMBs that touch us throughout our day the numbers are staggering.   

How many communities or articles could you read (or even participate in) during the day and still get your job done?

Several implications emerge:

When executives realize how much employee time and effort is spent on managing communities and blogs, there
will be a movement to streamline.   The ROI on these efforts will not exist.  Certainly blogs and the internet technology
 are cheap.  But there are hidden costs. 

Staff capable of creating quality content that continuously bring in your community is expensive. Although quantity over
 quality is the rule with search engines today, this will eventually shift as search algorithms improve.  We recently saw
a metric introduced by Nielson that measures "Total Minutes" spent on a site.  Conversion rates will also be important.

Most importantly, customers will vote with their time and internet opinions on your company reputation.  Crummy content
and poor execution will not bode well.

Some may argue that customer participation will draw users to your corporate community.  With less than 25% of users
 creating content in communities per IDC and Forrester Research,  it is difficult to bet on customer contributions.  We
estimate that most participation today exists in dedicated community sites such as Facebook.   Customer participation
in corporate communities is substantially lower on average. 

Lastly, many communities are two-sided markets.  They need to reach a critical mass of users to be effective. 
Communities will emerge that are "winner take all".   This is why FaceBook, LinkedIn and MySpace have emerged so
 quickly as leaders. 
(To learn more about two-sided markets, sign up for our free newsletter to gain access to our podcast with HBS
professor Tom Eisenmann.) 

Bottom Line:  As corporations rush into social communities and media, too many communities and blogs will be built
 that overwhelm customers and provide insufficient value to sustain them.  Corporations will not receive ROI for these
efforts and  will begin to pare back their efforts to those vehicles that provide value by 2010.  Many corporations will consider
 joining forces with others to create greater value and ROI.  Winners will take a strategic approach and place well calculated 
bets knowing this outcome.